Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
